From London to Beijing: Two Deals Down, 198 Countries to Go

By David Nelson, CFA

President Trump chalked up his first win since "Liberation Day" with a trade framework agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom. It’s the opening salvo in what his administration says will be a barrage of bilateral deals, potentially one for every nation on the trade map. As Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick put it, “We are going to roll out dozens of trade deals over the next month.”

That’s one down. 199 countries to go.

But the far bigger news came not from London, but from Geneva.

Geneva Breakthrough: The Trade War Hits Pause

After a weekend of marathon negotiations, the United States and China stunned markets Monday morning by announcing a sweeping rollback of the punitive tariffs that had paralyzed global trade. The numbers are eye-popping: Trump’s 125% “reciprocal” tariff on Chinese goods is dropping to 10%, matched by Beijing’s own sharp reduction. The agreement, effective immediately, will remain in place for 90 days while both sides pursue further negotiations.

Just weeks ago, this level of de-escalation would’ve seemed unthinkable.

The White House and Beijing jointly announced the creation of a formal trade consultation mechanism, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer squaring off against Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. It’s the most substantive dialogue channel between the two nations in years—and the clearest sign yet that both sides are prepared to trade brinkmanship for diplomacy.

This is not just a truce—it’s a strategic reset. For investors, it’s the most bullish signal from Washington since the tariff shock began.

From the U.K. to the World: A Blueprint Emerges

Though overshadowed by Geneva, the U.K. deal still matters. British metal duties are being relaxed, and both sides agreed to enforce stricter Rules of Origin to prevent third-country tariff dodging—a clear signal to China and others. The message: If you're an ally, there's flexibility. If you're not, prepare to pay.

But now, with the China breakthrough in hand, this U.K. framework may serve less as a hardline template and more as a diplomatic chess piece. It’s leverage. Tariff relief will be offered only in exchange for tangible concessions—whether on agriculture, tech, or narcotics enforcement.

Expect similar offers to hit desks in Tokyo, Brussels, and New Delhi in the weeks ahead. The U.S. just made clear: trade relief is on the table, but not for free.

Market Impact: Risk-On, With Caution

Bloomberg Data

Markets wasted no time repricing the news. Nasdaq futures spiked more than 3.5%, with the S&P 500 poised to open above its pre–“Liberation Day” level. Trade-exposed sectors led the charge—automakers like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, Ford, and GM all rallied, driven by the promise of cheaper parts and restored cross-border flows.

Tech giants—particularly Apple, Amazon, and Tesla—also moved higher in premarket trading, all of them heavily exposed to either China’s supply chains or its end market. Nvidia gained ground too, as investors speculated that export restrictions on AI chips could ease if diplomacy holds.

Still, a note of caution: this is a 90-day window. If talks collapse, tariffs snap back.

Powell’s Strategic Ambiguity Just Got Murkier

Chair Powell’s most recent press conference left investors scratching their heads. With inflation sticky and growth mixed, the Fed appears caught in a trap of its own making—unable to hike, unwilling to cut. Powell’s reference to “tariff shocks” as a stagflation risk is now—ironically—less relevant, just as it was beginning to shape rate expectations.

But the real problem isn’t tariffs anymore—it’s uncertainty. Will this trade thaw stick? Can the Fed afford to wait for clarity?

Meanwhile, Trump is still pounding the table for cuts. Powell won’t budge until either inflation cools further or the job market breaks. So we wait. And watch.

The Disconnect Between Wall Street and Main Street

Pantheon Economics

Despite the rally, many Americans remain unconvinced. Surveys and sentiment indicators have plunged, while hard data—jobs, payrolls—remains sturdy. It's the oldest tension in economics: Wall Street sees light at the end of the tunnel, Main Street isn’t so sure there’s a tunnel at all.

Eventually, the Fed will have to pick a side.

Microsoft Delivers, Alphabet Wobbles

Bloomberg Data

Microsoft’s blowout quarter—with Azure growing 35%, 16 points of that from AI—was the clearest sign yet that the AI arms race is paying dividends. Microsoft remains the cornerstone of my Alpha Select portfolios.

By contrast, Alphabet is feeling pressure. Apple’s Eddy Cue testified that the company is evaluating alternatives to Google Search—including OpenAI, Perplexity, and Anthropic. $147 billion in market cap vanished in a flash. It’s no longer a whisper—it’s a full-blown strategic threat to their search dominance.

Bloomberg Data

Alphabet still trades at a fair multiple, but the era of its unquestioned moat is over.

Apple, Amazon, Tesla: Sentiment vs Substance

Apple continues to lag in the AI race. The much-hyped “iPhone supercycle” tied to AI features hasn’t materialized. The company has now slipped below $3 trillion in market cap, second to Microsoft’s $3.2 trillion.

Amazon’s outlook has improved modestly with the tariff rollback, but consumer sentiment remains a challenge. Tesla, meanwhile, trades less on fundamentals and more on whatever Elon Musk says next.

The real standout is Meta, where AI-driven ad optimization is already boosting engagement and revenue. They’re proving that AI isn’t just a cost—it’s a margin enhancer.

Final Thoughts

The Geneva truce may not be the end of the trade war, but it is a meaningful ceasefire. Markets are responding to the hope that sanity is making a comeback. But make no mistake: this is still a trader’s market, not a long-term investor’s paradise.

Adaptability is everything now. Those who stay nimble—on trade, tech, and policy—will win. Those who cling to old narratives or outdated playbooks risk being left behind.

The next 90 days will tell us if this pivot holds—or if it was just a sugar high.

Whether you’re managing a portfolio or your own 401(k), the new rulebook isn’t written yet. But one thing is clear: you can toss the old one overboard.

Stay sharp. Stay skeptical. Stay informed.

For more news and insights, follow David Nelson on Substack.
David Nelson is Chief Strategist at Belpointe and host of The Money Runner Podcast

Disclosure: "At the time of this article I currently hold shares in some of the companies mentioned as part of investment portfolios in funds I manage for Belpointe. I went long Tesla shortly before this article was released. Additionally, I may discuss other securities that are under consideration for future investment; however, discussing these securities is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold. My mention of these securities reflects my personal opinion and analysis at this moment and may change without notice. Please remember that all investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal."